Marin County Housing Market Update: March 2026

What Buyers and Sellers Need to Know Right Now

Spring has arrived in Marin County — and so has renewed momentum in the real estate market. After a period of recalibration through 2024 and much of 2025, we are now seeing conditions shift in meaningful ways. Whether you are planning to buy, sell, or invest in Kentfield, San Rafael, or Novato, here is everything you need to know about where the market stands today.

Key Market Stats: March 2026

According to the latest data from Redfin and local MLS records, the Marin County real estate market is showing these key indicators heading into spring:

•       Median sale price: approximately $1.3 million, up 4.8% year over year

•       Average days on market: 64 days, down from 78 days this time last year

•       Homes sold in January 2026: 104, up from 99 the prior year

•       Roughly 36% of homes are selling above list price

•       Inventory remains tight, with listings up month-over-month but still below historical norms

The takeaway: Marin County remains a seller-friendly market, particularly for well-presented homes in desirable neighborhoods. That said, buyers are gaining slightly more negotiating room than they had at the peak of 2021–2022.

What Is Driving the Market in Spring 2026?

Several factors are shaping buyer and seller behavior right now:

Mortgage rates have eased from their recent highs and are trending toward the mid-6% range for a 30-year fixed loan. This is bringing buyers back off the sidelines who had been waiting for rates to improve. Simultaneously, the inventory of available homes — while still constrained — is beginning to climb as we move into the traditional spring selling season.

The result is a market with increasing buyer competition for quality homes, but with enough inventory that buyers can afford to be selective. Sellers of move-in-ready properties in strong school districts are seeing strong offers. Properties that need significant work are taking longer to sell and may require price adjustments.

San Rafael: The Highest-Activity Market in Marin

San Rafael continues to be the most active city in Marin County by transaction volume. Entry-level and mid-range buyers are particularly active here, and neighborhoods like Terra Linda, Sun Valley, and the East San Rafael corridor are seeing consistent demand. If you own a home in San Rafael and are considering selling, now is a favorable time to position it correctly and capture spring buyer demand.

Kentfield: Luxury Demand Remains Resilient

Kentfield continues to command some of the highest prices per square foot in the county. The combination of top-rated schools, proximity to outdoor recreation, and easy freeway access to San Francisco keeps demand firm. Luxury buyers who paused during the rate uncertainty of 2024 are re-entering the market, and well-priced properties are attracting multiple offers.

Novato: Value and Opportunity for Move-Up Buyers and Investors

Novato offers some of the best value in Marin County, with a median price point that is meaningfully lower than southern Marin communities. The Hamilton neighborhood continues to attract buyers seeking newer construction, while Black Point and Ignacio appeal to those wanting more space and land. Investors are also watching Novato closely, as rental demand remains strong and acquisition costs are more manageable than in other Marin cities.

What This Means for You

If you are a seller: Price your home strategically based on recent comparable sales, not 2022 peak prices. Buyers are savvy and well-informed. A correctly priced, well-presented home will attract offers quickly.

If you are a buyer: Do not wait for rates to drop to 4% — that moment may not come. Qualified buyers who act now are finding opportunities with less competition than during the frenzy years. Getting pre-approved and working with a local agent who knows off-market inventory is your best competitive edge.

If you are an investor: Marin County's fundamentals — limited supply, high demand, strong rental market — remain intact. 2026 is favoring disciplined, long-term operators over speculative flippers.