Fed Update/Mortgage Rates 09.20.23

Mortgage Rates Mershad Rezayati September 22, 2023

*FED HOLDS IOR AT 5.4%, DISCOUNT RATE AT 5.5%

*Most Fed Officials Still See One More 0.25-Pt Rate Increase in 2023

*FED REPEATS US BANKING SYSTEM IS SOUND AND RESILIENT

*Fed Officials See 3.7% Core Inflation at End of 2023, 2.6% at End of 2024, 2.3% at End of 2025

*Fed Officials See Stronger GDP Growth, Lower Unemployment in 2023, 2024

*FOMC: Job Gains Have Slowed But Remain Strong

*Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 5.6% at the end of 2023

*Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 5.1% at End of 2024

*Fed Officials See Fed Funds Rate at a Median of 3.9% at End of 2025

As expected, the Fed leaves rates unchanged and lays the groundwork for one more hike this year at either the November or December meeting. Big revisions to the expectations for 2024, effectively eliminating multiple rate cuts versus the Fed’s previous forecast – referencing consumer strength and strong labor market conditions. Fed had previously forecasted a yearend rate for 2024 to be at 4.6%, now 5.1%. Short-term rates are moving higher here….hasn’t impacted mortgages yet, which are unchanged.